What to Know About PPI

Posted on Wednesday, August 10, 2022 at 4:41 PM

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Dan Passarelli, CEO - Market Taker Mentoring


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The rally continues! As we used to say on the trading floor: give it the whip!

You know, big, big day today. Up 2.1% for the S&P 500 as measured by the SPY spiders ETF. And why is that?

Well, of course it's because CPI came out this morning and it came out at 8.5%, which was a little less than many economists were thinking, and it was a lot less from June's 9.1% reading.That's really good news. The key motivator for the Fed to raise interest rates is high inflation. When it cools down a little bit, that might put the brakes on some potential interest rate hikes. We'll see. There's a lot of time going forward, but this is definitely good news on that front.

Now with that said, we've talked about this in a lot of our videos lately, right? What we expected was, if inflation comes in today cooler than expected, we'd probably get a pretty good rally, which we did. And if it was going to come in hotter than expected, we probably would have sold off a fair amount.

Tomorrow we have PPI and all eyes are going to be on that. And that's going to be a little mini me version of CPI that came out today, in my opinion. I think if it comes out in line with what we saw today with CPI, a little bit cooler, rally could follow through just a little bit if for some reason it comes in hotter and there's like a divergence between CPI and PPI could sell off a little bit, but that's probably less likely.

So all eyes are definitely going to be on PPI tomorrow and the weekly unemployment figures that come out every Thursday morning. And after that a lot of the major, major news is out. There's still a lot of major news to come out, but the really major key stuff, unemployment last week, PPI, CPI this week, those are the really key things that the Fed watches. We're going to have a little bit of a hiatus from that. And so there's a possibility for a bit of a meandering market for a bit as it tries to find itself and it absorbs more information.

If we have some of the Fed governors talking, that could move the market as a whole, I would say that the biggest opportunity right now for the next week or two is probably finding individual opportunities and individual stock names and playing those as opposed to trying to figure out a direction for the market over the next couple of weeks. I hope that helps. 

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