Why Do Earnings Matter?

Posted on Wednesday, July 20, 2022 at 3:12 PM

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Dan Passarelli, CEO - Market Taker Mentoring

 

The market has held up for a pretty good part of the day here, shooting this video shortly before the close, but looking; I'm not going to say strong 'strong'; but hanging in there pretty well. And I'm looking at that and I've been talking about earnings for the past week or so because that's the one thing that I really focus on. And that's part of the reason why the S&P was up a bit today.

Netflix, and this is a pretty interesting story and I think very telling of what I think is going to play out throughout this earning season. Netflix announced better than expected earnings, fewer than expected lost subscribers but analysts gave a bit of a warning. They think that there could be some things that could hold the company back in the future. That's why we didn't see it really soar as much as it did. But it's still up about 6% today. We can pull up that chart of Netflix right here and we see that it bounced up above the 50 day moving average a few trading sessions ago and up recently. Well, today, like I said, of about 6% right now. It was up just a teeny bit more than that at some point during the day. I think we're going to see a lot of that throughout earnings. I think that some companies are going to, of course, announced surprises to the upside, some surprises downside.

I think that earnings will be reasonably okay with some caution. We've seen that with Apple. We've seen that with some of the other tech stocks that announced that maybe they would not hire as many people, not spend as much money in fear of a future potential recession. And I kind of want to take a step back too. Let's skip all the minutiae of the exact numbers and such, but a lot of folks have been concerned that this earning season might be a bit of a letdown, might be worse than last quarter or the quarter before. Well, guess what? The last several quarters, the last year, year and a half have been fantastic quarters for earnings. So when people say that the earnings aren't going to be as good, they're not going to say that they're bad. It's not that they think companies are going to be losing money. It's just that these amazing earnings that we've been seeing, we might not see play out this time.

So I think the earnings season might be a little bit more stable, and Netflix is a good example of that. We've seen some really big moves happened in Netflix over the past few quarters, and it was, to me, a surprisingly small move in Netflix today, following their earnings. And earnings is going to continue driving markets for the next few weeks through the rest of this earning season, through what we call retail earnings. Season after that. And if you're interested in trading earnings and you haven't yet attended our webinar on trading earnings, we're doing a final encore of that this evening, and we'd love for you to come. <<--just click the orange letters to register now.

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